Jan 13 2008
Super Tuesday Setup
The closer we draw to South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida, the bigger Super Tuesday becomes. I think Mike Huckabee will take South Carolina. The polls do not seem to be showing the breadth of his support as I think exists. Michigan is tight between McCain and Romney with Huckabee not trailing too far behind. When Florida caucuses, Republicans will have the chance to see if Rudy Giuliani’s strategy worked or if he has strategized himself right out of the race. This leaves a marvelous set-up for Super Tuesday when Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah all caucus.
However, I think the Super Tuesday results will be split enough that Republicans will still be without a clear frontrunner. It would be nice to think that by the time the Caucus Circus arrives in Pennsylvania on April 22, my vote will actually matter. I think I have about as likely a chance of that happening as a blizzard hitting Pittsburgh this year.



