a blog of little consequence

This is the craziest of the caucuses yet. First, we have had 3 major caucuses and 3 different winners. Secondly, South Carolina is a wildly spirited state. Third, they are expecting snow in part of South Carolina.

Despite all of the push-polling, smear attacks, and scuffles with reporters, the fracas that is the South Carolina comes to a close today. I really think anything could happen. So, with a grain of salt, I offer up these predictions:

Huckabee 32%

McCain 28%

Thompson 20%

Romney 18%

Paul 8%

Giuliani 6%

My gut is telling me that the numbers could be much lower than this, maybe more like Huckabee (or the whoever the winner is) around 27%, but I want to stick with the theory that I threw out with my Michigan predications, that the winner of each primary has been strongly in the 30’s. I was right about that and blew it with the winners.

FYI – liberals and the smear army tried to make Huckabee look like a racist yesterday. This was the first attack that actually led me to be concerned about Governor Huckabee. If Huckabee is a racist or has legitimate connections with white supremacist groups, I would quickly disavow him. I did some research and found that those attacks were not true. I think this excerpt from a Newsweek article sums up Governor Huckabee’s views on racism:

A few years later, Huckabee took the pulpit of a small but growing church in Pine Bluff, Ark., and started a Christian radio and TV station, which aired his Sunday sermons. One day a listener contacted him. He was a black teenager and was interested in attending services at Huckabee’s church, but worried he wouldn’t be welcome; Immanuel Baptist Church had been all white since its inception in the 1890s. “Of course you can come, I told him,” Huckabee recalls.

The minister prepared his flock. “I hope that nobody has anything except warm feelings,” he recalls telling them. “In fact, if he is not welcome, I don’t want to be here either.” The speech didn’t go over well among some church elders, who threatened to fire him. Several members quit in protest. But most of his parishioners stood with him, and in the years that followed, the church slowly integrated. “I grew up with a lot of people who really resisted integration,” Huckabee tells NEWSWEEK. “The more I listened to them, the more I became convinced that racism was an incredible evil.” Rex Nelson, who worked for Huckabee when he was governor, says his racial awareness “comes from being raised poor … He knew what it was like to look up at other people who were looking down on him.” (Huckabee later carried these lessons to the statehouse, where he pushed to end racial disparity in drug sentencing and urged compassion for the children of illegal immigrants—a position that put him at odds with some in his party.)