I have shortened the forecast range for clarity and decreased amounts attributed to Lake Effect Snow because Lake Erie is 100% frozen at this time. This is the first time in fourteen years that the Lake has completely frozen.
The models have been very inconsistent with the timing of the storm. Currently, they have it back coming though Monday morning. The models have also moved the track of the low, but I am fairly confident that it will track either directly over us or just to the south of us. If it goes just to our south we will receive a bit more snow than if it passes directly over us. Even a slight movement of the placement of the low can have an impact on who will see the three to six inch swath. I may need to tweak the map once more, but let's hope this is it.
We will continue to have the smaller squalls that have been coming our way, though it is unlikely that we will pick more than an inch from any one squall.
Keep your eyes out for a storm around February 22 and also a much bigger one towards the end of the month. We still are not seeing any signs of a thaw or warm up in the near future. The best case scenario would be that when we do come into a thaw the thaw is gradual. I doubt that such a strong cold and stormy pattern will go gently into that dark night. Be prepared for flooding when the thaw comes.
