JennCast: A Very Complicated Week

I have little confidence in this forecast, but based on the latest model guidance, this will be the final forecast. A storm update may be necessary by mid-week.

The models have been pretty fickle, even as late as today, so this could all change tomorrow night. The first storm comes through Monday morning starting briefly as snow and then as a mix, then mostly rain. Since the surface is still pretty cold, we will likely have a fair amount of freezing rain, but it could be spotty. I don’t anticipate widespread flooding as the existing snow will absorb the rain. The rain will change back over to snow later on Tuesday though little to know accumulation is expected on the roads until Wed. Light snow showers will occur off and on Wed. The second storm comes into play on Thursday through the weekend. It looks to bring us around 3-6” of snow, although amounts may have to be adjusted once we are within the 3 day forecast period. This snow will not come as a big dump, but accumulate through light and moderate snow shower. This leads us to the storm showing up on the models March 1-4. Recent model runs have placed Pittsburgh within the 12”+ range, with some runs placing us in the 20-30” range. Stay tuned as the that storm grows closer.

 There is no warm-up after this round of storms, instead, it looks like the stormy, snowy, cold pattern continues through at least the middle of March. I expect the all-time snowiest month on record for Pittsburgh to be broken within the Tuesday – Wednesday time frame. If this March 1-4 storm pans out, this is going to be close to our snowiest winter on record, dating back to 1894.

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