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JennCast: Less Snow but Worse Conditions

Jenn — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:04:53 +0000

The JennCast forecast range is from Thursday (12:01 AM) until Sunday (12:00 PM.) A complex Noreaster, moving back from NY into Northeast PA will bring snow and strong winds into Western Pennsylvania and West Virginia Thursday throughout the entire weekend. The storm will reach its chief intensity during the day on Friday when sustained winds will approach blizzard warning criteria levels. Sustained winds will range between 25-30mph with gusts likely to exceed 50mph. Models have shown a fair amount of discrepancies between each run over the last two days therefore there is not a high degree of certainty in terms of snow accumulation, particularly in the Pittsburgh metro area. Current thinking is as follows:

Pittsburgh Metro – 6-12”
Morgantown, Southwest PA, and Westmoreland County: 8-16”
Higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands and West Virginia: 1-3’

The caveat I will add is that there is the potential for both Pittsburgh and Morgantown to receive significantly more than is currently forecasted.

JennCast: A Very Complicated Week

Jenn — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:31:20 +0000

I have little confidence in this forecast, but based on the latest model guidance, this will be the final forecast. A storm update may be necessary by mid-week.

The models have been pretty fickle, even as late as today, so this could all change tomorrow night. The first storm comes through Monday morning starting briefly as snow and then as a mix, then mostly rain. Since the surface is still pretty cold, we will likely have a fair amount of freezing rain, but it could be spotty. I don’t anticipate widespread flooding as the existing snow will absorb the rain. The rain will change back over to snow later on Tuesday though little to know accumulation is expected on the roads until Wed. Light snow showers will occur off and on Wed. The second storm comes into play on Thursday through the weekend. It looks to bring us around 3-6” of snow, although amounts may have to be adjusted once we are within the 3 day forecast period. This snow will not come as a big dump, but accumulate through light and moderate snow shower. This leads us to the storm showing up on the models March 1-4. Recent model runs have placed Pittsburgh within the 12”+ range, with some runs placing us in the 20-30” range. Stay tuned as the that storm grows closer.

There is no warm-up after this round of storms, instead, it looks like the stormy, snowy, cold pattern continues through at least the middle of March. I expect the all-time snowiest month on record for Pittsburgh to be broken within the Tuesday – Wednesday time frame. If this March 1-4 storm pans out, this is going to be close to our snowiest winter on record, dating back to 1894.

JennCast Quick Clipper Update

Jenn — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 15:07:49 +0000

The models have continued to show some variance. Based on more recent model trends and looking at the current storm, I have increased snowfall totals and broadened the heavier area slightly.

JennCast Update

Jenn — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 05:16:22 +0000

I have shortened the forecast range for clarity and decreased amounts attributed to Lake Effect Snow because Lake Erie is 100% frozen at this time. This is the first time in fourteen years that the Lake has completely frozen.

The models have been very inconsistent with the timing of the storm. Currently, they have it back coming though Monday morning. The models have also moved the track of the low, but I am fairly confident that it will track either directly over us or just to the south of us. If it goes just to our south we will receive a bit more snow than if it passes directly over us. Even a slight movement of the placement of the low can have an impact on who will see the three to six inch swath. I may need to tweak the map once more, but let's hope this is it.

We will continue to have the smaller squalls that have been coming our way, though it is unlikely that we will pick more than an inch from any one squall.

Keep your eyes out for a storm around February 22 and also a much bigger one towards the end of the month. We still are not seeing any signs of a thaw or warm up in the near future. The best case scenario would be that when we do come into a thaw the thaw is gradual. I doubt that such a strong cold and stormy pattern will go gently into that dark night. Be prepared for flooding when the thaw comes.

Weekend JennCast: Don’t Shoot the Messenger!

Jenn — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:33:05 +0000

Looks like an ice prison

The last storm will return to the area (yes, seriously) bringing light snow on Saturday and Sunday. The storm is going to be in Canada bringing snow all of the way back down to Pittsburgh. This snow will be followed by a clipper on Monday through early Tuesday bringing widespread snow to the Mid-Atlantic area again. The track of the storm has waffled some, but right now it looks like the Pittsburgh metro area will see 4-8" form the clipper, with a total of 6-12" from Saturday through Tuesday morning. If the storm track changes, I will update my map over the weekend. This will be nothing like the President's Day storrm of 2003, but with between 20-30 inches of snow on the ground already, it will be something to behold!

JennCast: Mid-Week Storm

Jenn — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 19:26:54 +0000

Another potent winter storm is winding up to lower the boom on Western Pennsylvania. Light snow will begin to fall Tuesday afternoon and increase in intensity later Tuesday night before blizzard-like conditions unload on the Pittsburgh area Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop to the teens and eventually single digits as sustained winds of 20-30 mph howl. This increases the danger for further power outages and damage to personal property. The weather on Wednesday should not be taken lightly. The storm slows down Thursday and into Friday with some trailing snow showers. I expect the Pittsburgh metro area to receive 8-14" of fresh snow.

JennCast Mid-Week Storm Outlook

Jenn — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 20:41:12 +0000

Many in Pittsburgh remain without power, some receiving word that it could be the end of the week before power is restored. Schools around the area are closed tomorrow and the sound of chainsaws, snow blowers, and shovels are still filling area neighborhoods as the region begins to dig out from this record snowfall. I was without power for about 20 hours and thankful to see the lights pop on as I pulled into my driveway last night at 9:00 PM. This storm was unusual in that Pittsburgh, in particular had more snow than areas that usually are the primary targets for large snowfall like, north of Pittsburgh, especially north of I-80.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the JennCast is calling for an additional 8-14 inches form Tuesday through 6:00 PM Thursday. This snow will be the light and fluffy kind so the primary concern will be the bitter cold and howling winds that come into play Wednesday afternoon.

All this makes me wonder if the kids will be in school more than one or two days this week?

My friends who live along I-40 needs to be on the lookout for blast of snow next weekend, as a cold air keeps the storm to the south and moisture moves across the southern plains, through the Tennessee Valley, eventually exiting on the East Coast.

JennCast Saturday Storm Update

Jenn — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 16:18:10 +0000

Over 2' of snow has fallen in Pittsburgh and light snow continues. I am still without power. This storm stands a chance at being the biggest storm on record in Pittsburgh.

JennCast Storm Update

Jenn — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 06:51:57 +0000

Well over a foot of snow has fallen in Pittsburgh since it started snowing around lunchtime on Friday. Reports of freezing fog, thunder snow, disruptions in public transportation services, and closed roads and highways littered with accidents are just a few issues facing Pittsburghers. Currently, over 100,000 customerd are without power and I am one of them. Heavy wet snow has been bringing down limbs and power lines throughout the evening. Fortunately, I have been able to post this update with my Droid.

The JennCast calls for continued light to moderate snow throughout the day Saturday before tapering off in the afternoon.

My neighbor, Ron, has. Been busy snowblowing the walks...thanks, Ron!

Weatherman’s Day Blizzard

Jenn — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:56:13 +0000

Congrats to my friend on the coast! Some people within the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic will celebrate Weatherman's Day (Feb 5) by ushering in a blizzard while the rest of us will see some of the best snow in years. In Western PA, those to the south of Pittsburgh will see 12-22" of snow and to the north up to I-80 will see 8-12". From I-80 into the Southern Tier of NY accumulations will vary but mostly fall between 4-8" with the higher amounts furthest south.

Many people have noticed that local meteorologists do not have number these high. I notice tonight that the numbers from local forecasters are creeping up closer to my numbers, but they will probably continue to low-ball their forecasts to avoid the unpleasantness that they would get by over-estimating the storm. I am fairly confident in my number as the track of the storm and the forecasted precipitation amounts for us have remained very consistent over the past few days. If anything were to change, I wouldn't be horribly surprised to see us close to 2'.

Winter Storm Warnings are already in effect and many modes of transportation, businesses, and other organizations are already cancelling weekend activities. I expect the snow to start to fall in the early afternoon in the Pittsburgh area.

FYI: Keep your eyes open for another round of snow to come our way mid-week. This time, I think the Ohio Valley is the target.