The future hurricane Alex is now forming in what is turning out to be a pressure-cooker in the Caribbean and it is has potential to be a devastating storm for the Gulf Coast, specifically, Louisiana. Th Euro is depicting what could be at minimum, a Category 3 strength hurricane with New Orleans and Baton Rouge as its primary targets. I know Accuweather meteorologists have been accused of hying up storms this year, but was it really hype? have we not received pretty much what they predicted. It is difficult to root through the true hype peddled by main-scream media, but these guys are presenting the science as they see it in an effort to prepare people and save lives. I would put my money on Joe Bastardi over the National Hurricane Center any day.

I was recently interviewed for an Accuweather story about the use of social media for reporting weather, specifically, enthusiasts. Here is the link: http://www.accuweather.com/video/97822142001/social-medias-influence-on-storm-chasing.asp

Upper St. Clair, PA

For the last three summers, I have been on a quest to photograph lightning. At first, I blindly tried to just snap the shutter fast enough and then I realized I would rarely be fast enough, so I delved into some research. There are a lot of websites that tell you how to adjust your camera settings to grab the right shot but one basic rule of thumb applies: get the exposure is long as you can. In general, long exposure is achieved by either shooting in a dark setting or by using a small aperture and low ISO. For daytime lightning, in addition to to a small aperture and low ISO, I have started using either a neutral density or polarizer filter, or sometimes both lightning shots to achieve a longer exposure. Some advice tells you to set your camera to Bulb, the F-stop to 8, and ISO to 100 and leave it there, but you will quickly find that those settings work pretty much at night, only.

The other key ingredient is location. I am always on the hunt for the perfect location. At first I had high hopes of capturing a lightning bolt right over the Pittsburgh cityscape but I quickly learned there are a couple of problems with that. First, nearly all our storms come from the south-west, which means  that while standing at Mt. Washington or the West End Overlook and facing the city, the storm is coming over your left shoulder. Secondly, by the time lightning is over the city it is either raining too hard or the lightning is too dangerously close to be standing out on an overlook. I would love to find a location in the South Hills that gives me a clear, open vantage point to the west or south-west. That spot still eludes me. If I lived somewhere  where you could actually see storms coming, I would focus more on composition. Quite honestly, it is very difficult in Western PA. In most cases, the storm is very close before you can see the lightning, so you have a very brief time, with limited opportunities for interesting composition. Maybe I will catch something on vacation out west where you can see the storms for a long time before they arrive.

Lastly, you really can't expect to get a great shot without a solid tripod. The longer I shoot any type of landscape photography, the more valuable I find my tripod.

Not that we are into June, we really only have another 3-6 weeks left where we can expect strong thunderstorms, so I realize these might be the last decent shots I get this year.

South Park, PA

• Pittsburgh Metro – 6-12”
• Morgantown, Southwest PA, and Westmoreland County:  8-16”
• Higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands and West Virginia: 1-3’

The caveat I will add is that there is the potential for both Pittsburgh and Morgantown to receive significantly more than is currently forecasted.

The models have been pretty fickle, even as late as today, so this could all change tomorrow night. The first storm comes through Monday morning starting briefly as snow and then as a mix, then mostly rain. Since the surface is still pretty cold, we will likely have a fair amount of freezing rain, but it could be spotty. I don’t anticipate widespread flooding as the existing snow will absorb the rain. The rain will change back over to snow later on Tuesday though little to know accumulation is expected on the roads until Wed. Light snow showers will occur off and on Wed. The second storm comes into play on Thursday through the weekend. It looks to bring us around 3-6” of snow, although amounts may have to be adjusted once we are within the 3 day forecast period. This snow will not come as a big dump, but accumulate through light and moderate snow shower. This leads us to the storm showing up on the models March 1-4. Recent model runs have placed Pittsburgh within the 12”+ range, with some runs placing us in the 20-30” range. Stay tuned as the that storm grows closer.

 There is no warm-up after this round of storms, instead, it looks like the stormy, snowy, cold pattern continues through at least the middle of March. I expect the all-time snowiest month on record for Pittsburgh to be broken within the Tuesday – Wednesday time frame. If this March 1-4 storm pans out, this is going to be close to our snowiest winter on record, dating back to 1894.

The models have been very inconsistent with the timing of the storm. Currently, they have it back coming though Monday morning. The models have also moved the track of the low, but I am fairly confident that it will track either directly over us or just to the south of us. If it goes just to our south we will receive a bit more snow than if it passes directly over us. Even a slight movement of the placement of the low can have an impact on who will see the three to six inch swath. I may need to tweak the map once more, but let's hope this is it.

We will continue to have the smaller squalls that have been coming our way, though it is unlikely that we will pick more than an inch from any one squall.

Keep your eyes out for a storm around February 22 and also a much bigger one towards the end of the month. We still are not seeing any signs of a thaw or warm up in the near future. The best case scenario would be that when we do come into a thaw the thaw is gradual. I doubt that such a strong cold and stormy pattern will go gently into that dark night. Be prepared for flooding when the thaw comes.